When this country observes the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence next year, many people will look back at all the changes that have occurred. And some will try to predict the changes that lie ahead.
That’s what happened just before and during the bicentennial year, 1976, our country’s 200th anniversary. At that time, Dr. Don Paarlberg, the director of agricultural economics for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), attempted to look ahead 200 years, to 2176. Among other predictions, Paarlberg said the plow – the symbol of agriculture during our first 200 years – would gradually be retired. He predicted we would learn to grow crops using minimum tillage and controlling weeds with biodegradable chemicals.
The USDA economist listed some technological breakthroughs he expected, including hybridization of more crops, with higher protein content in cereal grains. He foresaw biological, rather than chemical, control of insects and diseases. He expected more accurate long-range weather predictions and possibly weather modification. Paarlberg predicted advances in food technology, especially in using plant protein as meat analogs.
Where would all these changes leave the family farm? Paarlberg foresaw agricultural production would require farms so large, with so much land, capital and managerial skill, a single person would be unlikely to supply them all. In commercial agriculture, the nearest thing to a family farmer, he said, would be an operator who lives on the land, but rents most of the acreage, borrows his capital and hires his farm labor.
It has been only 50 years since Paarlberg made those predictions. But much of what he foresaw has already become reality. Given the rapid pace of change, attempting to predict today what American agriculture will look like in 2176 would be folly.
In November 1975, I wrote, “A lot of people probably don’t like the kind of agriculture Paarlberg is predicting.” Many, I suspect, will feel the same way about the predictions made in the coming year.
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Al Gustin is a retired farm broadcaster, active rancher and a member of Mor-Gran-Sou Electric Cooperative.
